A Look At Highly Drafted D-men. Why Seth Jones is a Huge Risk

Ok let’s pretend you are the General Manager of the Colorado Avalanche. It’s the draft and you’re at the podium. “With the first selection in the 2013 NHL Entry draft, from the ____________ of the _____, we select____”   who would you chose? A lot of people, even after the Memorial Cup final, are saying Seth Jones. But is the #1 pick worth the gamble on a defenseman? We say it’s a gamble because of the track record of 1^st round defensemen. Here is a look at defensemen drafted in the 1^st round since 1999:

1999:

Branislav Mezei, 10^th overall

Jeff Jillson, 14^th overall

David Tanabe, 16^th overall

Kirill Safronov, 19^th overall

Steve McCarthy, 23^rd overall

Kristian Kudroc, 30^th overall

Two exceptions in this round were Barret Jackman (17^th) and Nick Boynton (21^st).

2000:

Rostislav Klesla, 4^th

Lars Jonsson, 7^th

Ron Hainsey, 13^th

Brooks Orpik, 18^th

Anton Volchenkov, 21^st

David Hale, 22^nd

Martin Samuelsson, 27^th

Niklas Kronwall, 29^th

This prospect pool is a litter richer. But with the exception of Kronwall, Volchenkov, and Orpik, the rest were pretty much busts. Sure Klesa has been a good defenseman but he was drafted 4^th overall for a reason. Columbus picked him because he was said to be the best defenseman in the draft. A franchise player, cornerstone, and can’t miss future all-star. All of which he never became. Hale, Samuelsson, Jonsson, and a few others never amounted to much either. So who was chosen after these guys? Nick Wallin, Nick Shultz, Kurt Sauer, Paul Martin, Andreas Lilja, and Lubo Visnovky, to name a few. Oh and Henrik Lunqvist.

2001:

Mike Komisarek, 7^th

Dan Hamhuis, 12^th

Igor Knyazev, 15^th

Carlo Colaiacovo, 17^th

Shaone Morrisonn, 19^th

Tim Gleason, 23^rd

Lukas Krajicek, 24^th

Jeff Woywitka, 27^th

So apart from Hamhuis and maybe Komisarek, none of these defensemen lived up to their hype and potential. Who was picked after? Fedor Tyutin, Jay Harrison, Christian Ehrhoff, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Marek Zidlicky, Johnny Oduya.

2002:

Jay Bouwmeester, 3^rd

Joni Pitkanen, 4^th

Ryan Whitney, 5^th

Keith Ballard, 11^th

Steve Eminger, 12^th

Denis Grebeshkov, 18^th

Anton Babchuk, 21^st

Martin Vagner, 26^th

Now, Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, and Whitney are all good defensemen, but if the Avs pass up Nate McKinnon for just guys like that, they’ll be kicking themselves. Who went after the 1^st round? Duncan Keith. Case closed.

2003:

Ryan Suter, 7^th

Braydon Coburn, 8^th

Dion Phaneuf, 9^th

Brent Seabrook, 14^th

Mark Stuart, 21^st

Shawne Belle, 30^th

Finally a draft with some excellent prospects in the top 10. If jones turned out like Suter and Phanuef, then it would be nice. But he could still amount to Erik Johnson. More on him later. Picked later: Shea Weber, Dustin Byfugien.

2004:

Cam Barker, 3^rd

Ladislav Smid, 9^th

Boris Valabik, 10^th

A.J. Thelen, 12^th

Andrej Meszaros, 23^rd

Jeff Schultz, 27^th

Mark Fistric, 28^th

Mike Green, 29^th

Andy Rogers, 30^th

Annnnns we’re back. Busts busts busts. Remember Cam Barker? So much hype, and so little return. Mike Green is the lone bright spot. Players chosen after: Alex Edler, Mark Streit.

2005:

Jack Johnson, 3^rd

Brian Lee, 9^th

Luc Bourdon, 10^th

Marc Staal, 12^th

Sasha Pokulok, 14^th

Ryan Parent, 18^th

Jakub Kindl, 19^th

Matt Lashoff, 22^nd

Matt Pelech, 26^th

Joe Finley, 27^th

Matt Niskanen, 28^th

Vladimir Mihalik, 30^th

Marc Staal is the lone bright spot in this draft. Well, Jack Johnson isn’t too bad either. But ask yourself this: would you want these guys or Nate McKinnon? Players chosen after: Kris Letang, Keith Yandle.

2006:

Erik Johnson, 1^st

Ty Wishart, 16^th

Mark Mitera, 19^th

David Fischer, 20^th

Bob Sanguinetti, 21^st

Dennis Persson, 24^th

Ivan Vishnevskiy, 27^th

Chris Summers, 29^th

Matt Corente, 30^th

Erik Johnson. Yea, let’s get another one of him.

Alright so since defensemen take a little longer to develop we’ll stop it here. Except for a few notables: Thomas Hickey, 2007 4^th. Drew Doughty, 2008 2^nd. Victor Hedman, 2009 2^nd. Eric Gudbranson, 2010 3^rd. Adam Larsson, 2011 4^th.

Out of these few recently drafted defensemen, Drew Doughty is the only guy we would want over Nate McKinnon. Hedman is NOT becoming what was expected of him. Adam Larsson is no difference maker. Eric Gudbranson is young so we’ll see.

So what does this mean for the Avs and Seth Jones? Taking a defenseman that early is a huge gamble. Dmen take longer to develop and aren’t always a sure thing. So is it worth the risk (yes it is a full on risk) to take a player that could turn into any of the above mentioned? There is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, there is always risk. But the risk for defensemen is higher than that of an explosive forward like McKinnon or Drouin. These are just names and numbers, but it does open the eyes to the fact that Jones might not be as good as every scout thinks he is.

Jones is the #1 dman on one of the best junior teams in Canada. Heck, one of the best Junior teams in the world. Yes, the Winterhawks are that good because of the play of Jones, but Jones is that good as a result of his team’s play around him. Stick any 16-20 year old defenseman on the Portland Winterhawks and see if his game improves. But look at Larsson. Hedman. Johnson. All top prospects and “can’t miss” defensemen, but don’t you think Tampa Bay wishes they had Matt Duchene instead of Hedman? Don’t you think St. Louis wished they picked Jonathan Toews over Erik Johnson? The list goes on.

If the Avs take Seth Jones 1^st overall and he turns into a player like Drew Doughty or Shea Weber, then that is awesome. But what if they take him 1^st overall and he turns out to be Mike Komisarek or Branislav Mezei? It’s possible, and it is something to think about.

But the lesson learned from all of these “can’t miss 1^st round prospects”, is that mistakes can be made. A

Patrick Roy? A Bad Idea. The Avs Need Succes, Not A Front Office Family Reunion

So Patrick Roy is in the running for the Avs vacant coaching spot. He is the coach of the Quebec Ramparts and he has seen success in that role. Roy also serves as the GM and part owner of the team. But this isn’t a write up on why we don’t think he will be the next coach of the Avs. This is a write up about why he shouldn’t be.

Patrick Roy is one of the best players to ever wear the Burgundy and Blue, and will forever go down as one of the greatest NHL players of all time. He and Joe Sakic have led the Avs to 2 Stanley Cups. But come on people. The Colorado Avalanche are essentially a business, so lets throw all that nostalgic nonsense out the window. Who cares that it would be cool to have Sakic and Roy run the team again? Who cares that it would be bringing back a huge piece of history to the franchise? You shouldn’t.

The Avs are a young team who need leadership and experience to coach them. So why in the world would a successful Junior level coach be the right fit for the Avs? Roy has no pro coaching experience. Not even as an assistant at the ECHL level. So what do you think will happen when you throw a rookie coach behind the bench of young, fresh faced NHLers? You will get exactly what has been going on the past 3 years.

Look at Joe Sacco. He was a rookie coach in the NHL, and he HAD pro experience. And he still couldn’t find ways to help this team. With a team like this, it is our opinion that the Avs need a hard-nosed, tough love type of coach that will the lazy, underperforming, feel sorry for yourself, excuse making, silver lining prone Avs into responsible, accountable hockey players that thrive for victory, play a full 60 minutes, and win games. Now, one could argue that Roy’s hard personality and bad temper would be perfect for these guys. Well, we think you’re wrong. Roy can kick garbage cans, yell, scream, bag skate his players, and be the closest thing to Mike Keenan as can be, but without relevant experience at the pro level, there is a good chance that he will fail in the coaching aspect.

Bottom line: A former NHL star does not translate into a good NHL coach. Look at Wayne Gretzky. He knew the game better than anybody, but he couldn’t find a way to teach it to his team.

We see so many tweets and comments saying “aw how cool would it be if Sakic AND Roy were back?” Yea it would be cool. But it wouldn’t be successful. So forget the glory days, forget the past. Stop clinging on to old players, and don’t let their names brainwash you into thinking they will be a good coach just because they were a good player for this team. The Avs need success, not a family reunion in the front office. Roy as head coach? Bad idea.  

Colorado Avalanche Player Grades: The Goalies

You all know what player grades are. Just about every blog for every team does them. And if you don’t know, it’s pretty self-explanatory, you’ll pick it up. The players are graded on an A+ - F scale. So we’ll start the last line of defense: the Goalies. Here. We. Go.

Semyon Varlamov: Grade C. Some will say “That’s way too low for the team Varly was on!” Well yes, Varlamov did not have a great supporting cast to help him out. But our logic behind the C grading is this: In games Varlamov played great, he deserves an A. In games Varlamov wasn’t great, he deserved an F. Everyone writing for us has, combined, seen all the Avs games this season. Varlamov was spectacular, and on many occasions, the only reason the Avs picked up 1 or 2 points. But when he was bad, he was bad. Varly gets rattled, pouts, and that affects his play. Look at his road record. 1-14-2. That isn’t just because of the Avs play as a whole. Varlamov was awful most of those games. He won 11 of 33 starts. A C is being generous.

J.S. Giguere: Grade A-/B+. Some will say “That’s way too high, you just put that because of his comments on the Vegas trips!” (By the way Shane O’Brien, you having fun in Vegas with Paul Bissonette?). Well yea, his comments have a lot to do with his high grade. But as a backup goalie, the way you help your team off the ice is just as important as the way you help them on the ice. Remember Peter Budaj? Kyle Turris does. When Budaj was backup for the Avs it was like having another coach on the bench. Budaj also acted as video coordinator, or so it seemed. It helped his team and so did Gigure. Not just with the Vegas stuff. And on the ice, in the latter half of the season, Giguere was the better goalie by far over Semyon Varlamov. He played solid, got the Avs a few more points, lit a fire under the behinds of the lazy, distracted teammates, and earned his A-/B+.

Sami Aittokallio: Grade C+. We definitely had to google his name. Google: The new spellcheck. So some might find it weird to give him a grade based on his 49:20 TOI. (Had to google that too). But we figured what the heck, there’s only 2 other goalies. So why C+? Because Aittokallio looked good in net for the Avs.  Not just because he is a baby faced blonde that looks like the 6^th member of One Direction, but he was solid, had great positioning, controlled his rebounds, and made some big saves. This is of course not applicable to the first few minutes of his NHL career. But Aittokallio is going to be a good goalie. He showed that with Finland at the World Juniors a few years ago. But hey, Sami: Next time you’re thirsty, try taking a page out of Zdeno Chara’s book entitled “What to drink on the way to a Stanley Cup whilst you’re feeling dehydrated on the bench wondering how you can shamelessly plug a soft drink company for obvious under the table cash that is so much money you don’t even care that you will get in trouble by the league that bends over for their sponsors”. Apparently that’s a working title.

Up Next: Player Grades: The defense.

(Spoiler alert: They should all be getting letters sent home from the principal recommending summer school)