A Look At Highly Drafted D-men. Why Seth Jones is a Huge Risk

Ok let’s pretend you are the General Manager of the Colorado Avalanche. It’s the draft and you’re at the podium. “With the first selection in the 2013 NHL Entry draft, from the ____________ of the _____, we select____”   who would you chose? A lot of people, even after the Memorial Cup final, are saying Seth Jones. But is the #1 pick worth the gamble on a defenseman? We say it’s a gamble because of the track record of 1^st round defensemen. Here is a look at defensemen drafted in the 1^st round since 1999:

1999:

Branislav Mezei, 10^th overall

Jeff Jillson, 14^th overall

David Tanabe, 16^th overall

Kirill Safronov, 19^th overall

Steve McCarthy, 23^rd overall

Kristian Kudroc, 30^th overall

Two exceptions in this round were Barret Jackman (17^th) and Nick Boynton (21^st).

2000:

Rostislav Klesla, 4^th

Lars Jonsson, 7^th

Ron Hainsey, 13^th

Brooks Orpik, 18^th

Anton Volchenkov, 21^st

David Hale, 22^nd

Martin Samuelsson, 27^th

Niklas Kronwall, 29^th

This prospect pool is a litter richer. But with the exception of Kronwall, Volchenkov, and Orpik, the rest were pretty much busts. Sure Klesa has been a good defenseman but he was drafted 4^th overall for a reason. Columbus picked him because he was said to be the best defenseman in the draft. A franchise player, cornerstone, and can’t miss future all-star. All of which he never became. Hale, Samuelsson, Jonsson, and a few others never amounted to much either. So who was chosen after these guys? Nick Wallin, Nick Shultz, Kurt Sauer, Paul Martin, Andreas Lilja, and Lubo Visnovky, to name a few. Oh and Henrik Lunqvist.

2001:

Mike Komisarek, 7^th

Dan Hamhuis, 12^th

Igor Knyazev, 15^th

Carlo Colaiacovo, 17^th

Shaone Morrisonn, 19^th

Tim Gleason, 23^rd

Lukas Krajicek, 24^th

Jeff Woywitka, 27^th

So apart from Hamhuis and maybe Komisarek, none of these defensemen lived up to their hype and potential. Who was picked after? Fedor Tyutin, Jay Harrison, Christian Ehrhoff, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Marek Zidlicky, Johnny Oduya.

2002:

Jay Bouwmeester, 3^rd

Joni Pitkanen, 4^th

Ryan Whitney, 5^th

Keith Ballard, 11^th

Steve Eminger, 12^th

Denis Grebeshkov, 18^th

Anton Babchuk, 21^st

Martin Vagner, 26^th

Now, Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, and Whitney are all good defensemen, but if the Avs pass up Nate McKinnon for just guys like that, they’ll be kicking themselves. Who went after the 1^st round? Duncan Keith. Case closed.

2003:

Ryan Suter, 7^th

Braydon Coburn, 8^th

Dion Phaneuf, 9^th

Brent Seabrook, 14^th

Mark Stuart, 21^st

Shawne Belle, 30^th

Finally a draft with some excellent prospects in the top 10. If jones turned out like Suter and Phanuef, then it would be nice. But he could still amount to Erik Johnson. More on him later. Picked later: Shea Weber, Dustin Byfugien.

2004:

Cam Barker, 3^rd

Ladislav Smid, 9^th

Boris Valabik, 10^th

A.J. Thelen, 12^th

Andrej Meszaros, 23^rd

Jeff Schultz, 27^th

Mark Fistric, 28^th

Mike Green, 29^th

Andy Rogers, 30^th

Annnnns we’re back. Busts busts busts. Remember Cam Barker? So much hype, and so little return. Mike Green is the lone bright spot. Players chosen after: Alex Edler, Mark Streit.

2005:

Jack Johnson, 3^rd

Brian Lee, 9^th

Luc Bourdon, 10^th

Marc Staal, 12^th

Sasha Pokulok, 14^th

Ryan Parent, 18^th

Jakub Kindl, 19^th

Matt Lashoff, 22^nd

Matt Pelech, 26^th

Joe Finley, 27^th

Matt Niskanen, 28^th

Vladimir Mihalik, 30^th

Marc Staal is the lone bright spot in this draft. Well, Jack Johnson isn’t too bad either. But ask yourself this: would you want these guys or Nate McKinnon? Players chosen after: Kris Letang, Keith Yandle.

2006:

Erik Johnson, 1^st

Ty Wishart, 16^th

Mark Mitera, 19^th

David Fischer, 20^th

Bob Sanguinetti, 21^st

Dennis Persson, 24^th

Ivan Vishnevskiy, 27^th

Chris Summers, 29^th

Matt Corente, 30^th

Erik Johnson. Yea, let’s get another one of him.

Alright so since defensemen take a little longer to develop we’ll stop it here. Except for a few notables: Thomas Hickey, 2007 4^th. Drew Doughty, 2008 2^nd. Victor Hedman, 2009 2^nd. Eric Gudbranson, 2010 3^rd. Adam Larsson, 2011 4^th.

Out of these few recently drafted defensemen, Drew Doughty is the only guy we would want over Nate McKinnon. Hedman is NOT becoming what was expected of him. Adam Larsson is no difference maker. Eric Gudbranson is young so we’ll see.

So what does this mean for the Avs and Seth Jones? Taking a defenseman that early is a huge gamble. Dmen take longer to develop and aren’t always a sure thing. So is it worth the risk (yes it is a full on risk) to take a player that could turn into any of the above mentioned? There is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, there is always risk. But the risk for defensemen is higher than that of an explosive forward like McKinnon or Drouin. These are just names and numbers, but it does open the eyes to the fact that Jones might not be as good as every scout thinks he is.

Jones is the #1 dman on one of the best junior teams in Canada. Heck, one of the best Junior teams in the world. Yes, the Winterhawks are that good because of the play of Jones, but Jones is that good as a result of his team’s play around him. Stick any 16-20 year old defenseman on the Portland Winterhawks and see if his game improves. But look at Larsson. Hedman. Johnson. All top prospects and “can’t miss” defensemen, but don’t you think Tampa Bay wishes they had Matt Duchene instead of Hedman? Don’t you think St. Louis wished they picked Jonathan Toews over Erik Johnson? The list goes on.

If the Avs take Seth Jones 1^st overall and he turns into a player like Drew Doughty or Shea Weber, then that is awesome. But what if they take him 1^st overall and he turns out to be Mike Komisarek or Branislav Mezei? It’s possible, and it is something to think about.

But the lesson learned from all of these “can’t miss 1^st round prospects”, is that mistakes can be made. A