Did the Avs Really Lose The Ryan O'Reilly Trade?

With the departure of Mikhail Grigorenko to the KHL for 3 years, the age old argument has been churned up again amongst hockey experts, and Sabres fans on Twitter who claim to be hockey experts. The argument? Who won the Ryan O’Reilly trade?

You begin to ponder this deep and complex question when all of the sudden you hear a gust of wind outside. The room dims, and you are left in darkness.

The ghost of Trade-mas past, who, under his long dark hood looks a lot like Chris Drury, enters the room through a cracked open window, and summons you to take an arduous journey through the passage of time. The destination: June 26^th, 2015. The streets look different, the people, younger. You’re sitting on your couch, or maybe at the grocery store, and you decide to check up on the information highway in which you get most of your on demand sports news: Twitter. You slide up to refresh the feed, and there it is, thrust upon you like a bolt of lightning. The wait is over, and elation overwhelms you, brought on by the faint ting of remorse. Ryan O’Reilly, the contract holdout and offer sheet signer, has been traded to the Buffalo Sabres. Maybe you heard it from Adrian Dater. Maybe you heard it from Bob McKenzie. You probably didn’t hear it from Mike Chambers, as is job title of Avs beat writer is probably just something the head honchos at the Denver Post put on his business card because “guy who tweets days old Avs news” didn’t really look good on a business card. But it doesn’t matter, because one of the biggest distractions in Avs history has been moved for a package of promising youngsters and draft picks. You think to yourself “it’s time to climb out o the basement and back into the playoffs!” Oh, so naïve. But nevertheless, it has been done. Now, at this point, you may not have known much about JT Compher, but a quick search would tell you that he was great in NCAA and has what hockey writers with little vocabulary to describe prospects would call “upside”. You recognize Nikita Zadarov as that big Russian D-man who can play physical; something the Avs will need in the future, and of course you’ve heard of Grigorenko, the talented prospect and high draft choice who didn’t quite find his grove in Buffalo. A worthy project for Avs coaching staff that should be around for a LONG time! Life is good in Avalanche territory.

All of the sudden, a wormhole appears and you are thrown the Avs press room. This is even further into the past. What is going on? Oh, it looks like the Avs have just made Gabriel Landeskog the new team captain. You remember this press conference from the internet. But what you didn’t remember seeing was a seething Ryan O’Reilly, watching the press conference from around the corner, stabbing a sewing needle in what looks to be a Gabe Landeskog voodoo doll. Did anyone else see that? Before you get a chance to look around, you’re off and moving again with the ghost. The ghost takes you to another location. Canada, but there’s no snow and igloos. This is strange, its dark out. The sun is just starting to rise. You see an old newspaper clipping announcing O’Reilly has signed a 7 year deal with the Sabres, paying him $7.5M. Yikes you think to yourself. That is a lot of money for a player who has never scored 65 points. You look at your watch, its around 4:00am and you’re tired. There’s a Tom Hortons nearby and you want a coffee. Just as you are about to cross the street, a green 1951 Chevy screams passed you and slams into the building. A little frightened, you tell the ghost to take you somewhere else.

You arrive in 2017, at the end of the regular season. You are in the stands for the Sabres last game of the season and you grab the stats sheet from your game program. Ryan O’Reilly only has 20 goals, and not even 60 points. But that’s okay, because half the reason they brought him in was for his defensive game. The ghost of trade-mas past slowly hands you his Blackberry. This guy is from the past, you think as you look at the screen. The screen shows team penalty kill statistics for the whole league, as well as fancy stats. Oh, Buffalo is 25^th in PK, and their fancy stats are at the bottom of the league too. Wasn’t O’Reilly supposed to be a difference maker? At least he only makes $7.5M against the cap. The Sabres won the trade. Right? You ask the ghost to take you home. You’ve seen enough.

As the ghost of Trade-mas past drops you off at home you start to feel a little silly for your optimism. Hindsight is 20/20 after all. You hear a bang in the kitchen. Something has knocked over some dishes drying in the sink. Or, if you’re in college, a can of Macaroni and Cheese off the hotplate in your 1 room dorm. The culprit? The ghost of trade-mus present, and he takes you on a whirlwind journey you’ll never forget. First stop: Glendale Arizona. Why? Because that’s where Jamie McGinn is training. That’s right, the other piece the Avs sent over in the trade only logged 63 games in Buffalo before moving on. But the Sabres won the trade, because they got O’Reilly. Right?

The ghost whisks you away to another present-day location. You are in Joe Sakic’s office. He is on the phone with a player agent, hoping to lock in his best young defenseman who showed a ton of promise, and great hockey sense the previous year before getting injured. And this guy can hit, just ask the Winnipeg Jets. The players, not the fans. The fans will either say he is a dirty player, or they won’t know what you’re talking about since no one actually goes to the games. On the table, you can see Sakic has a development chart out, tracking all the prospects. You notice two names: AJ Greer, and Cameron Morrison. As you read through the files, you can see scouting data on Greer: Great hockey mind for offense, and sound in the defensive zone. He can put up numbers on the scoreboard and contribute in all other areas on the ice. Nice. You remember Greer playing a little last season, giving the tired, bored, unmotivated roster a refreshing burst of energy. Your eyes dart to Morrison’s report: Former Junior scorer that had a great first year in NCAA. The guy can rack up the points. Not bad return for the Avs, you think; especially since O’Reilly is the only remaining piece of Buffalo’s trade pie. Oh, you remember something. Grigorenko signed in the KHL. Well that stinks, because, at the time, the Avs really needed another forward. Or…was it a defender they really needed for the future? Well, it doesn’t matter what they needed, you think, because even if they Avs were just looking for forwards, they got Greer and Morrison in the deal as well. And if it was D they needed, they got Zadorov. All for O’Reilly and McGinn. As you turn around to leave, you notice a name on the whiteboard is Sakic’s office. It is a depth chart, and it says JT Compher. You almost forgot that he was part of the trade too. But the Avs got robbed. One of the worst trades ever. Right?

The ghost takes you to another GM’s office, but you can’t recognize his face. He must be new. A quick search of the office tells you that this is the headquarters for Buffalo GM Jason Boterill. Oh, that’s right. The Sabres fired Tim Murray, the architect and genius that swindled the Avs out of Ryan O’Reilly. Boterill is on the phone. He’s bragging about his most recent trade, finally getting a decent defenseman in Marco Scandella, and getting Jason Pominville back. Boterill talks about how the Sabres need another big strong defenseman, as the last GM left him with terrible options and a bad prospect pool for the back end. Boterill slams Tim Murray, ridiculing the awfull contract he gave out to Dmitry Kulikov. “But Murray just needed a big Russian Defenseman to eat minutes and use the body” you hear the voice on the other line say. “He was lacking in that department, and got Kulikov out of desperation”. You turn to the ghost and ask if Zadorov would have been a good fit for the Sabres at this point. The ghost just looks on. Boterill is also raving about getting Pomminville back. He says having the veteran leadership in the room will be great for the Sabres. Uh oh, you say, as you think back to how O’Reilly handled previous leadership situations. Boterill continues to brag about his free agent signings. “Yeah Benoit Pouliot will help us will the penalty kill, he can take defensive zone faceoffs if necessary, and he will be great on the penalty kill!”. Wasn’t that what O’Reilly was brought in for? Boterill continues “And adding Seth Griffith will give us a young guy with potential. After we traded Ennis and Foligno, I needed a guy that could develop into a potential scoring threat”. Your mind shifts to wondering what the Sabres organizational depth would look like if they kept Compher and had drafted Greer and Morrison. But the Sabres won the trade. Right?

The ghost of trade-mas present warps you back into your kitchen and leaves without a word. You lay on your bed, dreary from the travels. You find yourself eager for the visit of the ghost of trade-mas future, but you know you will have to wait. Maybe it’s a journey you will need to take day by day. You sit and wonder what it will look like. The Sabres haven’t got much better in the offseason, not good for a team who hasn’t made the playoffs since they robbed the Avs in a trade. The Sabres prospect pool isn’t look to great either. Not good for a team that gave up many future assets when they stole O’Reilly away from the Avs. The Sabres need to name a new captain. What if it isn’t O’Reilly? Will he get ticked off again and cause riffs in the dressing room? That won’t be good for a team with so many young players that need guidance. The Sabres have a new coaching staff and new management. This will be the Sabres’ 3^rd coach since the trade. Not great for a team who hasn’t made the playoffs with the $7.5M man.

Your mental energy shifts to the Avs. It’s great, you think, that Avs even managed to get anybody for a disgruntled player who had previously held out on them and was difintley not going to sign a new deal in free agency. And to get so much return for a player in that situation isn’t so bad. You lay your head down on the pillow and wonder, in 5 years, when Compher, Greer, and maybe even Morrison, are still in the midst of RFA contracts, where will O’Reilly sign in the UFA period? Will Buffalo be able to get him back? Will he be already gone? As you doze off, you think about how great it is that the Avs have all these talented assets that will be with the team for a long time going forward, and all they had to do was trade a guy who didn’t want to be here, and who would not have re-signed anyways. But the Sabres won the trade. Right?