Wednesday 26 August 2015

How Will Inevitable NHL Expansion Effect The Colorado Avalanche?

It isn't really a matter of "if" expansion is coming to the NHL, it is more a matter of when. And expansion means an expansion draft, which means each team will lose some assets. The NHL probably wouldn't just allow one team to expand, but you never know. Regardless of how many teams are coming into the league, the rules would remain the same. The only difference would be how many players the Avs would lose. The rules are as follows:

The Avs, and all other teams can select one of the following 2 options:

They can choose to protect 9 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 1 goalie.
OR they can choose to protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 2 goalies.

This leaves an interesting choice for Avs brass. Do they protect 15 players in option #1 and risk losing Pickard? Or do they protect only 12 players to ensure Pickard stays on the team? When the time rolls around, it will be a hot topic for debate. But let's put that aside for one second, and look over a few more expansion draft rules:

Teams need to leave 1 defenseman and 2 forwards unprotected who meet the following criteria: They must have played at least 40 games the previous season, or at least 70 games over the last two seasons (35 each season or some other combination of games played).
Players on Entry Level Contracts are automatically exempt, which is a crucial rule in letting teams keep their prospect cores intact.

So let's the run the numbers: We will do scenario 1 first, and we will be using this year's roster as an example, because we do not know what next year's will look like:

Entry Level Contract protected players: MacKinnon, Zadarov, Rendulic, Seimens, Everberg, Rantanen, Bigras, and most other young prospects not listed in the "unprotected" sections.

9 protected forwards: Landeskog, Duchene, Iginla, Tanguay, Grigorenko, Mitchell, Soderberg, Comeau,

5 Protected Defensemen: Barrie, Johnson, Beauchemin, Elliott, Holden

1 Protected goalie: Varlamov.

Unprotected players: McLeod, Winchester, Pickard, Redmond, Guenin, Berra, Bordaleau, Stuart, Noreau, Clark, Agozzino. Anyone left off isn't probably going to picked.

So this scenario looks pretty good for the Avs. Losing either Guenin or Stuart would shed some salary and a useless defenseman, and losing McLeod and Winchester would also get rid of some dead weight. It would be wise to put Hishon on the unprotected list, even though he has great potential still. New teams may not want a guy with head issues, as sad as it is to say. But, having him on the list means the Avs do not have at least 2 forwards with the needed games played requirements, so Bordaleau has to be left unprotected. This may change next year, however. Maxime Noreau would probably not be picked, and neither would Mat Clark. Redmond would not be picked either, so protecting the young Elliott, fresh off an entry level deal, is wise. He still has potential, we swear! Agozzino would be a tough loss but teams would probably be after roster players over prospects. Unless it is a goalie. Would Pickard be picked? Tough call. There are a lot of other great goaltending prospects out there that teams could steal. Dustin Tokarski from the Habs comes to mind. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Svedberg, Neimi or Lehtonen if the Stars protect only one goalie. Pretty much any team with a bonafide #1 starter and a young hotshot backup. Would you pick Hutchinson from the Jets or Pickard? Maybe. But the risk of losing Pickard is not as big as you would think. So let's look at option for the Avs:

7 protected forwards: Landeskog, Duchene, Iginla, Tanguay, Grigorenko, Soderberg, Mitchell

Newly unprotected: Comeau, Bordaleau, Hishon

3 Protected Defensemen: Barrie, Johnson, Beauchemin.

Newly unprotected: Holden, Elliott.

2 Protected goalies: Varlamov, Pickard.

Total unprotected players: McLeod, Winchester, Pickard, Guenin, Berra, Bordaleau, Stuart, Noreau, Clark, Agozzino, Holden, Redmond, Hishon, Bordaleau, Comeau.

This pot looks a lot more enticing for expansion teams looking to get a good core fast. Blake Comeau and John Mitchell would be great additions to a new team, and it is a bit of a toss up as to who they should protect, even though Holden and Redmond would be safe.  In scenario 2, the Avs meet the experience quota (40 or 70 games played) for unprotected players so they are say there. But is it worth losing Mitchell or Comeau in order to keep Pickard, even though Varly in the #1 guy long term? That is for you to decide, but we say no, go with option #1. It leaves the Avs with more options up front, and as we said before, there are a lot of hot goalies out there than will probably be left unprotected. To play devil's advocate though, a total of 8 goalies can be taken in the draft if two teams get added to the league, so there is still a gamble. What has happened in previous expansion drafts, teams have given up assets or players so the expanding team does not choose a roster player. To simplify it, the Avs could trade a 2nd round pick to Quebec or whoever nothing, in exchange that the new franchise would not choose Pickard, or any other unprotected player. The Quebec team would then choose a different player from the Avs roster.

So who would the teams pick? Assuming the teams pick a roster player off the Avs, their options are really slim in scenario #1. Cody McLeod is an obvious choice for a new team if Pickard isn't selected. McLeod's leadership and grit would be great for a new team. He could even be named captain. Bordaleau would be a good piece for much the same reason, and Stuart would add great experience on the back end. Another thing to consider is the salary situation. Assuming the NHL gives the expansion team the same cap floor, teams could go for guys with higher hits as well, meaning Stuart would be be a great pick, Guenin too. We'd pick: McLeod, Stuart. Not Pickard.

Scenario two gets even more interesting. Holden is a good up and coming defenseman, and Mitchell/Comeau add more offense to the qualities found in Bordy and McLeod. We would pick: Mitchell, Stuart. Mitchell could be 2nd line center on an expansion team and Stuart has experience yada yada yada. Elliott is now unprotected, which could be mouth watering for a new team.

So what happens if there is expansion next year?

Next year, Mackinnon will be off his Entry Level contract, so he would need to protected in either scenario, which means a new forward would foot the bill. This is where the Avs can get really smart. If Soderberg stinks it up this year, they can leave him out as an option to shed salary. Same with Beauchemin and any other player next year. Would an expansion team pass up Soderberg's skill and high cap hit? Probably not. Zadarov is on an entry level deal for a few more years so he is safe. So is Bigras, but Seimens, when retained, will be on a standard player contract, so that could tricky. A lot of speculation, probablys, and what ifs here, but it is easy to guess a lot of the unknown and have it go your way.

Another interesting factor: How will no trade/movement clauses fit into expansion?, Landeskog, Soderberg, and Tanguay all have No Trade Clause's so we could be stuck with Soderberg if he sucks, but the other two are no brainers.

There it is. The inner workings, scenarios, and food for though regarding the inevitable expansion. If you disagree with anything or have an opinion, feel free to comment or tweet us, and we'll try to share it with the Twitterverse.

Tuesday 25 August 2015

Our Future Lies With Some Of You: 2015 Edition

Every year we do a very well written, in depth, analytical review of the Colorado Avalanche draft choices. Okay we've done it twice. We missed last year. But here is a reincarnation of the vasty popular series. It is like the Atlanta Flames and the Atlanta Thrashers. The first edition, not very good and didn't really work out. Th second edition: just as bad, maybe worse, won't work out either, but there will be someone blindly pushing it along hoping it will work out because the failure of the new installment would look for horrible for him. That was a Gary Bettman joke. We won't hold it against you if you stop reading now.

If you've made it this far, thank you. Man, how ignorant are the people who stopped reading after the Bettman joke? So here it is: the 2015 edition of "Our Future Lies With Some of You"
You may ask yourself why it took us so long to write this. 2 reasons. 1: Everyone was doing draft profiles after the draft and this would have just watered down the already watered down subject of writing, and face it, we're a blog so it would have slid to the bottom of your priority list for reading, nestled JUST above that advertisement on the bottom of another webpage saying how "rich people HATE this easy trick to make millions and are trying to cover it up". You've seen it, we know you have. And it just doesn't event make any sense. Why would rich people not want other people to get rich? Is it like an exclusive club that if too many people join, there won't be enough seats for the original rich people? Is Rosa Parks going to have to put another person in their place, rightfully so, AGAIN? And come on. A get rich quick idea, a "trick" that just so happens to be online? Easily accessible? Ya okay. Reason #2. We wanted to provide lots of August reading because August sucks for hockey. Simply put, we really weren't rushing to write this. Because the Avs 2015 Entry Draft was Russian enough. See what we did there? You won't be ignorant for leaving now, we understand.

With their first pick in the draft, the Avs selected Connor McDavid. Just kidding. We didn't suck for 5 years like the Oilers. You can't do a draft preview without making a joke like this. Only, others made more clever, better jokes. We pulled a Dane Cook. Our bad.

Mikko Rantanen: 1st round, 10th overall. This Finn is so bog he could be on the back of a Great White shark and no one would notice the difference. We're not saying he's going to be good, but when Colorado selected him, Pierre MacGuire just kept Rantanen on about how much skill he has. Rantanen will make the team, and he and Landeskog will make a Scandinavian duo unseen since the times of Thor and Odin. But they aren't related. Projected role with the Avs: 2nd line forward who doesn't think he's worth 8 million dollars.

A.J. Greer: Like every hockey player to come out of the NCAA, he will be an absolute star. He'll follow in the footsteps of these superstar former Hobey Baker winners:



This pick was a bit of a journey-man pick. The pick the Avs got from the Sabres in the O'Reilly deal got traded for this pick. And if a career in hockey doesn't work out, he has the perfect name for an FBI Official in a movie. Who wouldn't have high hopes for a guy the Avs traded DOWN to get? Projected role: Well as a left winger who scored 7 points in 37 games last year, maybe the movie career isn't looking too bad after all.

Nicholas Meloche: 2nd round, 40th overall. He sounds made up. Projected role: N\A.

Jean-Christophe Beaudin: 3rd round, 71st overall. From the QMJHL's Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, Jean-Christophe Beaudin, from St. Bruno-de-Montarv, Quebec, probably has the longest line of any player in the draft, and perhaps the most French name in the Avs organization since Richard Demen-Willaume. The Avs decided they didn't have enough center depth so they picked this 6ft tall future superstar. Projected role: His name will be longer than his career.

Andrei Mironov: 4th round, 101st overall. Mironov was a great pickup. A big defenseman who already has 3 years of professional experience in the KHL. Well, professional is a bit of a stretch when talking about the KHL. One of our informant spies has reported to us that Moscow Dynamo hasn't paid Mironov in 2 years, which is 3 years better than most KHL'ers. Apparently KHL owners use revenue strictly from attendance to pay their players, which is why they're always broke. Projected role: Varlamov's roommate and language prodigy. They had originally hired Ilya Bryzgalov, but quickly realized it wouldn't be a good idea.

Sergei Boikov: 6th round, 161st overall; From the most Russian sounding town ever, Khabarovsk. Its got the KH. It's got the OV. It even has a SK. Boikov really sums up this year's draft for the Avs really nicely; A European who plays in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. That's all the Avs drafted. French and Europeans. I think Roy had a little but too much of an influence in this one, and it was painful to watch on TV and read about afterwards. This is the commentary in a nutshell: "The Avs get a Russain, no doubt the help out Varlamov because Varlamov is also from Russia so obviously a Russian defenseman and a Russian goalie will thrive off each other. Russia." And then "This guy from the QMJHL, you know Roy had something to do with this, obviously watched him play, may have seen him play against the Remparts as a 16 year old, Quebec French Roy Hockey Connections". We were all there and we apologize for making you relive it. Projected role: 3rd string KHL defenseman, because he'll go to the KHL when he doesn't make the team.

Gustav Olhaver: 7th round, 191st overall. Do you ever picture an older heavy set guy selling raw sausage links sitting on a wooden barrel wearing torn, older clothes? You have haven't you? Well his name is probably Gustav Olhaver. But let's focus on THIS Gustav Olhaver. His claim to fame with the Avs will be the fans trying to figure out how to pronounce his name. We think it's Oel-Hayve-Er. This will be a tricky one. Remember how hard it was for all of us to figure out how to say Pickard? We're screwed. Gustav played for 4 teams in Sweden last year. Well, 4 versions of the same team. Euro hockey is weird. Projected role: at 6'6, 214 pounds, he could have a chance. If not, he can have some fun in San Antonio. That's still weird to say.


So there you hae it. OUr extrememly in depth analysis of the future Avs of tomorrow, today. No need to thank us for broadening your hockey horizons and knowledge, it's all in a days work.

...wow, all the European and French names; their's so much red on the Microsoft Word document the Russians are starting to feel right at home!

By the way, we used 3 semicolons in this piece so that automatically makes it good writing.

Sunday 23 August 2015

Who Wore It Better: #19






























Who Wore It Better?:

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Who Wore It Better? #18

In an effort to make the offseason more bearable, we here at Avaholics Unanimous are committed to bringing you Avs related stuff to read. This could come in the form of senseless drabble, or things that are actually interesting to read. We hope these "Who Wore It Better" segments fall under the latter category.

Here we are yet again with another installment of who wore it better. We hope this series is keeping your boring offseason just a little more entertaining. The number 18 is, for some reason, the number Avs players use after they have had success with a former number. Examples: Alex Tanguay switched from #40 to number #18 in 2003. Chris Drury switched to #18 after having success with #37 in the early part of his career. Stephane Yelle had #18 in his final stint with the Avs after being dominant in the face off circle as #26. Brian Willsie, in his return to the Avs in 2008, wore #18 after having #50 in his first go around. Brandon Yip had #59 first. Only 2 players have worn number 18 with the Avs without donning another number. So there is some interesting history!

The Best: Adam Deadmarsh. His first 4 years with the franchise (3 with Colorado) were 20+ goal seasons and he was a rough and tough player that took the pressure of Sakic and company. Top 10 all time Avs player for sure. The only regret of the 2001 season, in our opinion, is that Deadmarsh wasn't around to hoist the cup with the team. He deserved a better than a concussion shortened career.

The Worst: Brandon Yip. The thing that would not be. Drafted in the 8th round, his expectations weren't very high, but after some impressive training camps and time in the AHL, his skill set was enough to gain a spot on the floundering Avs of the late 2000's Avs. His had brief flashes of offense, but was usually very soft and horrible defensively. He got scored on more than (insert random celebrity here).

Mr. Irrelevant: Mike Connolly. The throw in to the McGinn trade, Connolly played 2 games in an Avs uniform with 1 shot on goal and a penalty. No one had high expectations for Connolly and he definitely met them.

Other #18's:

Brian Willsie: Winner of the "Only good thing about the NHL 2002 roster update" award.

Stephane Yelle: We traded him and Drury for nothing. The beginning of the end.

Chris Drury: Winner of the "Early Retirement After a Bad Contract" award.

Alex Tanguay: So bald.


Who Wore It Better?:

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Tuesday 11 August 2015

Who Wore It Better?


In an effort to make the offseason more bearable, we here at Avaholics Unanimous are committed to bringing you Avs related stuff to read. This could come in the form of senseless drabble, or things that are actually interesting to read. We hope these "Who Wore It Better" segments fall under the latter category.

Here is the main dashboard for the "Who Wore it Better" series. This way you can find the numbers you want to read about without having to scroll through all our posts or click on a million pages before you reach your destination. Enjoy!


Who Wore It Better?:

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Who Wore it Better?: #17

In an effort to make the offseason more bearable, we here at Avaholics Unanimous are committed to bringing you Avs related stuff to read. This could come in the form of senseless drabble, or things that are actually interesting to read. We hope these "Who Wore It Better" segments fall under the latter category.

For the Avs organization, #17 has been passed around more than T.J Hensick. Because he isn't very good and can't hold down steady employment on a hockey team. Out of all the #17's for the Avs, none really stand out. Most wear it for one year, then move on to either a new number or new team. Ever since 2012 a new player has worn #12 every year. Now, because of the foul of Joe Sakic and company, Brad Stuart gets to wear it for 2 more years. So who is the worst? Who is the best? Which one of the rest is more irrelevant?

The Best: Radim Vrbata. Talked about a lot on this blog when dealing with bad trades, or Bates Battaglia. Vrbata spent a season and a half with the Avs, scoring 29 goals and 60 points in 118 games. Apparently that wasn't good enough for a Czech rookie, so the Avs shipped him off for Battaglia, who was only good in Carolina because he played a few years with Rod Brind'Amour. Vrbata is still going strong, with 2 30 goal seasons and 3 20 goal seasons under his belt. And Battaglia, he won the Amazing Race. Did you know his legal first name is Jonathan?

The Worst: Brad Stuart. Two reasons. First, Nobody played a big enough role or enough games as a number 17 to warrant the title of the worst. Second, and lastly, Stuart was not good last year. This player is pretty current, so we will remind you of his failures is a few short words: Skating, shooting, defending, penalty killing. Enjoy the press box next year. Can someone pay us millions to eat junk food and watch the Avs?

Mr. Irrelevant: Christian Matte already won the award for Mr. Irrelevant on #14, so we'll give the honor to another player; Landon Wilson step right up. Wilson played 9 games as #17 for the Avs scoring a goal and 2 assists. He would go on to play for the Coyotes, Bruins, and Penguins up until 2004, before making an NHL comeback in 27 games with the Stars in 2009. He only scored more than 10 goals once in his career but his longevity in the league with those numbers takes a nod to his defensive, 2 way game he played.

Other 17's:

Jari Kurri: Kurri ended his illustrious career with the Avs, managed to score his 600th career goal in an Avs sweater.

Christian Matte: Mr. Irrelevant of #14, and runner up for #17 and #27 (spoiler alert).

Jim Cummins: Cummins retired in 2001-02 only to make a comeback to play for the Avs in 2003-04. Cummins was a tough guy amassing 1538 penalty minutes.

Jaroslav Hlinka: Winner of the "How to misuse European talent award"

Chuck Kobasew: He was always sort of around.

Aaron Palushaj: Yet another hot US College prospect that struggled to make the jump to the NHL. Remember Hobey Baker winner Kevin Porter?


Steve Downie: Also wore #27, and injuries unfortunately cut his time short before being traded for Max Talbot.



Also in the Series:

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