How Will Inevitable NHL Expansion Effect The Colorado Avalanche?

It isn't really a matter of "if" expansion is coming to the NHL, it is more a matter of when. And expansion means an expansion draft, which means each team will lose some assets. The NHL probably wouldn't just allow one team to expand, but you never know. Regardless of how many teams are coming into the league, the rules would remain the same. The only difference would be how many players the Avs would lose. The rules are as follows:

The Avs, and all other teams can select one of the following 2 options:

They can choose to protect 9 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 1 goalie.
OR they can choose to protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 2 goalies.

This leaves an interesting choice for Avs brass. Do they protect 15 players in option #1 and risk losing Pickard? Or do they protect only 12 players to ensure Pickard stays on the team? When the time rolls around, it will be a hot topic for debate. But let's put that aside for one second, and look over a few more expansion draft rules:

Teams need to leave 1 defenseman and 2 forwards unprotected who meet the following criteria: They must have played at least 40 games the previous season, or at least 70 games over the last two seasons (35 each season or some other combination of games played).
Players on Entry Level Contracts are automatically exempt, which is a crucial rule in letting teams keep their prospect cores intact.

So let's the run the numbers: We will do scenario 1 first, and we will be using this year's roster as an example, because we do not know what next year's will look like:

Entry Level Contract protected players: MacKinnon, Zadarov, Rendulic, Seimens, Everberg, Rantanen, Bigras, and most other young prospects not listed in the "unprotected" sections.

9 protected forwards: Landeskog, Duchene, Iginla, Tanguay, Grigorenko, Mitchell, Soderberg, Comeau,

5 Protected Defensemen: Barrie, Johnson, Beauchemin, Elliott, Holden

1 Protected goalie: Varlamov.

Unprotected players: McLeod, Winchester, Pickard, Redmond, Guenin, Berra, Bordaleau, Stuart, Noreau, Clark, Agozzino. Anyone left off isn't probably going to picked.

So this scenario looks pretty good for the Avs. Losing either Guenin or Stuart would shed some salary and a useless defenseman, and losing McLeod and Winchester would also get rid of some dead weight. It would be wise to put Hishon on the unprotected list, even though he has great potential still. New teams may not want a guy with head issues, as sad as it is to say. But, having him on the list means the Avs do not have at least 2 forwards with the needed games played requirements, so Bordaleau has to be left unprotected. This may change next year, however. Maxime Noreau would probably not be picked, and neither would Mat Clark. Redmond would not be picked either, so protecting the young Elliott, fresh off an entry level deal, is wise. He still has potential, we swear! Agozzino would be a tough loss but teams would probably be after roster players over prospects. Unless it is a goalie. Would Pickard be picked? Tough call. There are a lot of other great goaltending prospects out there that teams could steal. Dustin Tokarski from the Habs comes to mind. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Svedberg, Neimi or Lehtonen if the Stars protect only one goalie. Pretty much any team with a bonafide #1 starter and a young hotshot backup. Would you pick Hutchinson from the Jets or Pickard? Maybe. But the risk of losing Pickard is not as big as you would think. So let's look at option for the Avs:

7 protected forwards: Landeskog, Duchene, Iginla, Tanguay, Grigorenko, Soderberg, Mitchell

Newly unprotected: Comeau, Bordaleau, Hishon

3 Protected Defensemen: Barrie, Johnson, Beauchemin.

Newly unprotected: Holden, Elliott.

2 Protected goalies: Varlamov, Pickard.

Total unprotected players: McLeod, Winchester, Pickard, Guenin, Berra, Bordaleau, Stuart, Noreau, Clark, Agozzino, Holden, Redmond, Hishon, Bordaleau, Comeau.

This pot looks a lot more enticing for expansion teams looking to get a good core fast. Blake Comeau and John Mitchell would be great additions to a new team, and it is a bit of a toss up as to who they should protect, even though Holden and Redmond would be safe.  In scenario 2, the Avs meet the experience quota (40 or 70 games played) for unprotected players so they are say there. But is it worth losing Mitchell or Comeau in order to keep Pickard, even though Varly in the #1 guy long term? That is for you to decide, but we say no, go with option #1. It leaves the Avs with more options up front, and as we said before, there are a lot of hot goalies out there than will probably be left unprotected. To play devil's advocate though, a total of 8 goalies can be taken in the draft if two teams get added to the league, so there is still a gamble. What has happened in previous expansion drafts, teams have given up assets or players so the expanding team does not choose a roster player. To simplify it, the Avs could trade a 2nd round pick to Quebec or whoever nothing, in exchange that the new franchise would not choose Pickard, or any other unprotected player. The Quebec team would then choose a different player from the Avs roster.

So who would the teams pick? Assuming the teams pick a roster player off the Avs, their options are really slim in scenario #1. Cody McLeod is an obvious choice for a new team if Pickard isn't selected. McLeod's leadership and grit would be great for a new team. He could even be named captain. Bordaleau would be a good piece for much the same reason, and Stuart would add great experience on the back end. Another thing to consider is the salary situation. Assuming the NHL gives the expansion team the same cap floor, teams could go for guys with higher hits as well, meaning Stuart would be be a great pick, Guenin too. We'd pick: McLeod, Stuart. Not Pickard.

Scenario two gets even more interesting. Holden is a good up and coming defenseman, and Mitchell/Comeau add more offense to the qualities found in Bordy and McLeod. We would pick: Mitchell, Stuart. Mitchell could be 2nd line center on an expansion team and Stuart has experience yada yada yada. Elliott is now unprotected, which could be mouth watering for a new team.

So what happens if there is expansion next year?

Next year, Mackinnon will be off his Entry Level contract, so he would need to protected in either scenario, which means a new forward would foot the bill. This is where the Avs can get really smart. If Soderberg stinks it up this year, they can leave him out as an option to shed salary. Same with Beauchemin and any other player next year. Would an expansion team pass up Soderberg's skill and high cap hit? Probably not. Zadarov is on an entry level deal for a few more years so he is safe. So is Bigras, but Seimens, when retained, will be on a standard player contract, so that could tricky. A lot of speculation, probablys, and what ifs here, but it is easy to guess a lot of the unknown and have it go your way.

Another interesting factor: How will no trade/movement clauses fit into expansion?, Landeskog, Soderberg, and Tanguay all have No Trade Clause's so we could be stuck with Soderberg if he sucks, but the other two are no brainers.

There it is. The inner workings, scenarios, and food for though regarding the inevitable expansion. If you disagree with anything or have an opinion, feel free to comment or tweet us, and we'll try to share it with the Twitterverse.

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