The Avs Playoff Picture: A Numbers Game

This blog was not created to rip on the Avs or to get the hopes down of its readers. It was created to give Avs fans and whoever else a non-biased perspective of the team. And this is an example of that. As we said in an earlier blog, a write up on the Avs playoffs chances was in the works. So here it is; A look at the Avalanche's playoff chances and the bubble teams they are fighting against:

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs, as of VERY early March 16th, sit in the 8th and final playoff spot. They lead the San Jose Sharks and the Calgary Flames by 1 point, and the Los Angeles Kings by 3 points. Colorado has 9 games left. Their opponents: The Rangers, the Flames (Twice), the Canucks (Twice), the Coyotes, the Sharks, the Predators, and the Blue Jackets. A relatively difficult schedule and they play 4 of the remaining 9 games against the other bubble teams. If the Avs make the playoffs, they need wins against them. And NOT in the OT/SO periods. The Rangers, Canucks, and Predators are going to be tough. Oh and did I mention, the Avs have played 1 more game than Phoenix, 2 more than Calgary, and THREE more than San Jose and LA?

The hard part of making the playoffs this year for the youngest NHL team does not necesarily lie in the Avs' schedule. 

Phoenix Coyotes: The 'Yotes have 10 games left, only 4 of which are against bubble teams (one vs. Colorado. They have a game at hand against Colorado and play the Oilers, Ducks, Blue Jackets, and Wild as well. Not exactly powerhouses these days. The Coyotes have more point, more games, and possibly the easiest schedule of all the bubble teams. Avs fans need to hope for a meltdown. Avaholics prediction: Phoenix squeezes into the playoffs.

San Jose Sharks: This might depress some Avs fans. The Coyotes, as I am sure most of you have heard, have 3 games at hand on Colorado. What makes it worse? They are only one point behind after a SO win against the Predators last night. What makes it even worse? They have 3 games left against the Kings, 2 against the Stars, 2 against the Ducks, and one each against the Avs and Coyotes. The problem with these games is that even if the Sharks lose, the Kings, Coyotes, and Stars will get valuable points. Cue Jaws music here. Avaholics prediction: Sharks make the playoffs. Ahead of Phoenix.

Calgary Flames: The Flames are a less of a threat. They have a somewhat tough schedule, playing the Avs twice, and Canucks twice. But in their remaining 11 games (2 at hand on the Avs, only 1 point back) they play the Stars twice, and the Kings once. They also have easier games against the Oilers, Blue Jackets, and Wild. Avaholics prediction: Flames miss the playoffs again.

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings chances are slim. They are 3 points behind the Avs with 3 games at hand. They have to play the Sharks 3 times, Oilers twice, and matchups against the Preds, Blues, Bruins, Canucks, Flames, and Wild. That is a fair chunk of games against bubble teams, so as previously stated, some teams with inevitably get points. Avaholics prediction: The Kings will lose most of their remaining games, and miss the playoffs.

So what the Avs need to do is simple. Win 7 of their 9 games, and pray to the hockey gods that there are no 3 point games. The only teams with more ROW`s (Right Out Wins) than the Avs (29) is Phoenix (30) and Calgary (31). The Sharks and Kings each have 28, so as long as the Avs don't keep winning shootout games. It will take a small miracle for the Avalanche to make the playoffs, but we have seen miracles happen on this team before (See Jamie McGinn's 18th goal of the season). No matter what the outcome, it is going to be a fun ride. It doesn't matter when Round 1 actually starts. For the Avs, THIS is playoff hockey.